Evaluating the Role of Annual Budget Items and Economic Indicators in Realizing the Resistive Economy Goals
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The aim of this study was to investigate the role of the Iran’s annual budget in realizing the resistive economy goals by examining the annual budget items, including realized revenues and realized expenditures between the years 2007 and 2016 and their relationship with important economic indicators, including economic growth, unemployment rate, inflation rate and Dollar exchange rate. Using regression and analysis of variance, this study investigated the budget items separately with each of the mentioned economic indicators and tested the possible linear relationship between them. This study was conducted according to the assumptions of the regression method and analysis of variance and the results showed that the annual budget items (realized revenues and realized expenditures) had no linear relationship with economic indicators of economic growth, unemployment rate and inflation rate, and the correlation coefficient between them was non-significant. However, realized revenues and realized expenditures over the past ten years showed a linear relationship with the economic indicator of the dollar exchange rate and the correlation coefficient between them was significant. It suggested that dollar exchange rate has changed over the past ten years that can be related to changes in budget items during this period. Therefore, the result of this study could introduce the annual budget of the country as a tool for government, through which it can predict and control the exchange rate in the next years using the changes in the items of revenues and expenditures of annual budget. Due to high fluctuations in the exchange rate in the country over the past months and its significant negative effects on other economic indicators, it seems that predicting and controlling the exchange rate through applying changes in annual budget items can be a step towards the realization of the resistive economy goals.
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