Model for the Evaluation of Road Economic Costs in Long-Term Program Considering Traffic and Pavement Performance Parameters Using HDM-4
Downloads
This study presents a methodological approach for evaluating long-term road economic costs by integrating the Highway Development and Management Model (HDM-4) with the statistical technique of Design of Experiments (DOE). A 25-year road program was simulated through pavement life cycles, where traffic and pavement states were parameterized into experimental cells. The DOE Composite Central Design (CCD) was applied to generate response variables representing annual economic costs borne by the state (RAC) and users (RUC). Multiple linear regression models and sensitivity analysis were employed to approximate and validate the simulation results. The findings reveal that traffic volume (AADT) and the International Roughness Index (IRI) are the most influential performance parameters affecting cost variations. Polynomial models with linear, quadratic, and interaction effects were obtained, enabling the quantification of relationships between pavement deterioration and economic costs. Results demonstrate that preventive maintenance strategies significantly reduce user costs while increasing state expenditures, highlighting the trade-off between RAC and RUC. The proposed framework provides a robust tool for strategic highway planning and rational decision-making in infrastructure management under resource constraints.
Adler, H. A. (2011). Economic appraisal of transport projects. Johns Hopkins University Press.
Albuquerque, F. S., & Núñez, W. P. (2010). Criteria for decision-making in sustainable road works. Ambiente Construído, 10(3), 151–163.
Agência Nacional de Transportes Terrestres. (2018). Concession notice no. 001/2018 – Concession for operation of Southern Integration Highways BR 101/RS, BR 290, BR 448, and BR 386. ANTT. Brazil.
Archondo-Callao, R. S. (2005). HDM-4 management tools – Network evaluation results. World Bank.
Archondo-Callao, R. S. (2008). Applying the HDM-4 model to strategic planning of road works (Technical Paper TP-20). World Bank.
Austroads. (2004). Impact of climate change on road infrastructure (Report AP-R 243).
Austroads. (2007). LTPP and LTPPM study: Summary report for 2006/07.
Austroads. (2008). Development of HDM-4 road deterioration – Model calibrations for sealed granular and asphalt roads (Report AP-T 97/08).
Bennett, C. (1995). Review of experience adapting the HDM 4 vehicle operating costs model. University of Birmingham.
Bennett, C. R., & Greenwood, I. D. (2022). HDM 4: Highway development & management – Modelling road user and environmental effects in HDM 4 (Vol. 7). Highway Development and Management Series.
Bennett, C. R., & Paterson, W. D. O. (2022). HDM 4 highway development & management: A guide to calibration and adaptation (Vol. 5). Highway Development and Management Series.
Branco, F., Pereira, P., & Santos, L. P. (2016). Road pavements. Almedina.
Campolongo, F., & Saltelli, A. (2010). Design of experiments: Sensitivity analysis. John Wiley & Sons.
Departamento Nacional de Transportes Terrestres. (2017). Calibration and verification of the HDM 4 model for Brazilian road network conditions. In: The 1st Planning Week, Brasília. DNIT. Brazil.
Draper, N. R., & Smith, H. (1998). Applied regression analysis. John Wiley & Sons.
Federal Highway Administration. (2013). Practical guide for quality management of pavement condition data collection. FHWA.
Fernique, L. (2010). Roads in developing countries: Management and monitoring, a large-scale benchmark tool for road networks. SSATP / World Bank.
Hair, J., Anderson, R., & Tatham, R. (1998). Multivariate data analysis. Prentice Hall.
Jacobs, G. D., & Greaves, N. (2003). Transport in developing and emerging nations. Transport Reviews, 23(2), 133–138.
Jiju, A. (2005). Design of experiments for engineers and scientists. American Society for Quality.
Kerali, H. G., Odoki, J. B., & Stannard, E. E. (2022). HDM 4 highway development & management: Overview of HDM 4 (Vol.1). Highway Development and Management Series.
Kleijnen, J. P. C. (2004). Design and analysis of experiments with simulation models: Methods for sensitivity analysis. ResearchGate. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/216300915.
Mânica, A. G. (2005). Technical-economic evaluation of road network lot two belonging to the CREMA/RS program using the HDM 4 model. In XIX ANPET Congress, Recife, Brazil.
Mânica, A. G., & Martins, J. L. H. (2007). Financial modeling of international loan agreements for the recovery of state road networks. In XXI ANPET Congress, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
Montgomery, D. C. (2012). Design and analysis of experiments. John Wiley & Sons.
Montgomery, D. C., & Peck, E. A. (2015). Introduction to linear regression analysis. John Wiley & Sons.
Morosiuk, G., Riley, M., & Toole, L. (2022). HDM 4 highway development & management: Modelling road deterioration and works effects (Vol. 6). Highway Development and Management Series.
New Zealand Transport Agency. (2005). A review of the HDM/dTIMS pavement models based on calibration site data (Research No. 907). NZTA.
New Zealand Transport Agency. (2008). The prediction of pavement remaining life (Report No. 341). NZTA.
Núñez, W. P. (1997). Experimental analysis of thin road pavements with altered basalts (Doctoral thesis, PPGEC/UFRGS). Porto Alegre, Brazil.
Sacks, J. S., Welch, W. J., Mitchell, T. J., & Wynn, H. P. (1989). Design and analysis of computer experiments. Statistical Science, 4, 409–423.
Saltelli, A., Ratto, M., & Andres, T. (2008). Global sensitivity analysis: The primer. John Wiley & Sons.
Skandary, A. F. (2016). Sensitivity analysis of HDM 4 pavement deterioration models (Master’s thesis). University of Ljubljana, Slovenia.
Simpson, T. W., Peplinski, J., Koch, P. N., & Allen, J. K. (2004). Metamodels for computer-based engineering design: Survey and recommendation systems. Georgia Institute of Technology.
Sinha, K. C., & Labi, S. (2015). Transportation decision making: Principles of project evaluation and programming. John Wiley & Sons.
Skandary, A. F. (2016). Sensitivity analysis of HDM 4 pavement deterioration models (Master’s thesis). University of Ljubljana, Slovenia.
