Prediction of Farmers' Exchange Rates in Riau Province using the Holt-Winters Approach
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The Farmer Exchange Rate (NTP) is an important indicator to measure farmers' welfare, reflecting the comparison between the prices received by farmers and the prices paid for consumption and distribution. This study aims to analyze the trends and forecast the NTP using the Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing method in the R application with the forecast package. NTP data were obtained from the official source of the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) of Riau Province, covering the period from January 2015 to December 2024. The model evaluation was conducted using the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) as the primary metric to measure the forecasting error rate. The MAE value obtained indicates that the model can provide a fairly accurate estimate of the NTP. It is expected that the results of this study can serve as a reference for the development of the Farmer Exchange Rate in the coming years
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