The New Manifestations of External Debt in Developing Countries From 2000 to 2019

: The paper analyzes the new manifestations of external debt in developing countries from 2000 to 2019, author uses the analytical qualitative and quantitative method, the findings are (1) the external debt is trended by groups of country, (2) external debt stocks of PPG long term debt, PNG long term debt rose between 2000 and 2019, (3) The percentage of GDP of External debt stocks decreased, PNG long term debt and short term debt slightly went up between 2000 and 2019, (4) East and South-East Asia and Oceania and Latin America and the Caribbean have exchange the top and second position of highest amount in both 2018 and 2000, (5) Debt service on long-term external PPG of SIDS is helds the biggest amount of debt between 2000 and 2019, (6) The redemption schedules of both High-income countries and Low- and middle-income countries both increased the amount of redemption which is from around 2 to 2.32 tril USD and 0.67 to 1.07 tril USD in 2000 and 2021, respectively. This shows us that at least they have solution how to get resolved their external debt.


INTRODUCTION
The global scale of external debt of developing countries has been become the greatest from twentieth century. The debt crisis is to prove as an unprecedented phenomenon to the world economy. The direct reason of occurrence of the global debt is that the market economy leading increasing the commodity exchange between well developed countries and the countries still considered as developing countries. To a great extent, that phenomenon occurred due to the loans given by the richer countries to the countries that were worse developed-though-it should be noted that also welldeveloped countries ran into debt (Grzegorz Górniewicz, 2009). As per the study of David Simon in 2020, " The debt crisis has been with us for approaching half a century and, despite many initiatives by creditors and indebted countries, it is unlikely to disappear in the foreseeable future. The structural as well as proximate causes of the global debt crisis that erupted in the early 1980s are outlined as context to examination of the anatomy of indebtedness as it has subsequently evolved and mutated differentially in various regions of the Global South and transitional economies. Several global initiatives have sought to tackle the problem in different ways since the 1980s, ranging from outright debt forgiveness to structural adjustment. The longest lasting is the Highly Indebted Poor Country Initiative and its enhanced sequel, the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative. Their record has been mixed and some countries are now again facing unsustainable levels of total external debt through a mixture of inappropriate domestic policies, fluctuating terms of trade, and a failure to tackle the global structural causes of indebtedness".

LITERATURE REVIEW
The basic cause of the occurrence of external debt of developing countries is due to the open of industrialized countries and their expansion. The least develop countries and the developing countries cannot join the global market and are not able to abey and follow the rules that apply by the developed countries. External debts, purposed is to accelerate the economic growth of developing countries and to make the considerable differences in economic level void, became the future restraint of development that bore negative influence on financial condition of states. Underde-veloped countries remained passive receivers who cannot afford (Grzegorz Górniewicz, 2009). The status of bebt heaviness of Korea manageable and within expectation. However, the concern over increasing short-term debt with fluctuating interest rates because of the constraints produced on the process of economic adjustments to changing world conditions. Besides, the long-term debt service ratio is shown to be inadequate, as it indicates overall debt burden and servicing needs of a borrowing country when asset preferences have been undergoing shifts toward short-term obligations. The implications related to debt issue of developing countries are a strong expansion in world trade is essential for decreasing economic and financial costs of external debt conditions. The skill improvement how to manage debt and flexibility in the economic structure are also essential for reducing the economic costs of the external debt on developing economies, Vu Thi Kim Hanh, AFMJ Volume 6 Issue 06 June 2021 because they increase a country's ability to rapidly bring about a manageable debt level. Basically, external debt issue is a monetary phenomenon of both a local and global nature in a world characterized by its growing interdependence. Therefore, solutions should be devised accordingly. However, the current difficulties hould be resolved through global efforts, Once they are mitigated, one can then turn to the question of how the external debt was created at such a high level in the first place (SungY. Kwack, 1983). External debt has strong influence making negative effect on growth in comparison with domestic debt when indebtedness increases. debt has a negative effect on economic growth in the long term. A nonlinear analysis reveals an asymmetric outcome of external debt on economic growth. Export and total factor productivity as key economic control variables contribute significantly to economic growth (Keshmeer Makun, 2021). Study of Marin Ferry, MarcRaffinot, Baptiste Venet in 2021 found out that "the debt relief has fostered borrowing from private creditors, and identify the absence of reputational effects and the short-term horizon of private creditors as the key drivers that made renewed access to the credit market possible". As by study of Gatien Bon and Gong Cheng in 2021 found out that "China has been increasingly involved in debt restructurings for low-and middle-income countries like Iraq The magnitude of China's debt relief actions remains generally limited and varies across countries, depending on whether other creditors have also provided debt restructurings. China seems to have a growing preference for cancellation of accumulated arrears to nominal debt principal reduction. The debt rescheduling cases have significantly increased in recent years as well. This evolution brings China closer to the flow treatment that the Paris Club privileged in its early years of operations and the prevailing practices among private creditors". In China, technological innovation effect is offset by the investment substitution effect that leads to an overall nonsignificant impact on the debt ratio. Therefore, the impacts on debt ratio by brownfield investment and the outward foreign direct investment destined for less developed countries are not apparent.In comparison, the greenfield investment andthe OFDI destined for developed countries lead to anincreased debt ratio (Zhenbing Yang, Zhuo Chen, Qi Shi al et, 2021). The study of David Simon in 2020 stated that "The largest absolute external debtors are middle-income or, like China and India, economically fast-growing countries. Not all of these are experiencing the heaviest debt burden; the weight of the burden depends on the ability of a country to service its debt. Although the US government is by far the world's largest debtor, being unable to cover its fiscal deficit (which stood at $8.348 trillion in late May 2006). Nevertheless, it is salutary to note that this debt was more than three times higher than the total external debt of all low-and middle-income countries in 2005". By study of Xuguang Simon Sheng, Rubena Sukaj in 2020 shows that "External debt shocks for 120 low-and middle-income countries during the 1975-2018 period lead to persistent decreases in the external debt to GDP ratio, possibly due to the availability of other sources of financing. During recessionary episodes, however, we see heavy reliance on external debt financing for most of developing countries. This reliance is more substantial for countries with higher levels of external debt stock, raising serious concerns for debt distress in these countries and in their road to building resilience". The estimation results reveal insignificant positive impact of both external debt and export on economic growth, in the shortrun. The impact turns negative in the long-run. Some policy options may be considered included the curtailing of external borrowing until current debt stocks are repaid, ensuring external loans are tied to specific projects to avoid inefficient allocation of the funds, exploring domestic capital market for funds as alternative to external borrowing (Samson Edo, Nneka Esther Osadolor, Isuwa Festus Dading, 2020).

METHODOLOGY
Qualitative method by three following steps: Step 1: Collect information of debt of developing countries through internet, World Bank (WB), United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), International Monetary Fund (IMF), United Nation (UN), published papers, newspapers Step 2: Deeply studying Global Development Finance External Debt of Developing Countries which published by WB and report of Development statistics and information branch of UNCTAD Step 3: Analyzing the the bebt status of developing countries Quantitative method: having statistics, analyzing by charts.

DATA SOURCE
All data are from UNCTAD WB, Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), and Institute of International Finance (IIF)

THEORETICAL BASIS
Definition of External Debt of WB in 1988, "The agreed core definition of external debt is gross external debt is the amount, at any given time, of disbursed and outstanding contractual liabilities of residents of a country to non-residents to repay principal, with or without interest, or to pay interest, with or without principal". Definition of External Debt by IMF in 2003 is 'The Guide defines gross external debt as follows: Gross external debt, at any given time, is the out-standing amount of those actual current, and not contingent, liabilities that require payment(s) of principal and/or interest by the debtor at some point(s) in the future and that are owed to nonresi-dents by residents of an economy". According to the Economic Times, "Definition of External Debt is to refer to money borrowed from a source outside the country. External debt has to be paid back in the currency in which it is borrowed. External debt can be obtained from foreign commercial banks, international financial institutions like IMF, World Bank, ADB etc and from the government of foreign nations. Normally these types of debts are in the form of tied loans, meaning that these have to be used for a predefined purpose as determined by a consensus of the borrower and the lender. Government and corporations are eligible to raise loans from abroad. These are in the form of external commercial borrowings. The interest rate on foreign loans is linked to LIBOR (London Interbank Offer rate) and the actual rate will be LIBOR plus applicable spread, depending upon the credit rating of the borrower".  This is of concern is while PPG long term debt decreased between 2000 and 2008, these other PNG long term debt and short term debt slightly went up during the period shown. In 2000, PPG long term debt got the biggest amount is 21%, PNG long term debt and short term debt are approximately 7.5% and 5%, respectively. Although PPG long term debt went down in 2019 at around 11% but still higher than PNG long term debt and short term debt which are roughly 10% and 7.5%, respectively. All three kinds of debts did not have big different amount in 2013 that are less than 10%.      This is of concern is Sub-Saharan Africa bears the heavier debt than Low-income group which around 12% in 2000. The overall the orange line is not like to be bad over the period show, but badly increased sharply in 2019 at around over 18%.

STUDY RESUTLS
The status of Low-income group is similar that has a slight going down but the amount debt in 2019 is still high which is approximately 8%.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION
Main point is the external debt is trended by groups of country. The detail are external debt stocks is while the external debt stocks of PPG long term debt, PNG long term debt rose between 2000 and 2019, short term debt was fluctuated at the same period. The percentage of GDP of External debt stocks is while PPG long term debt decreased, PNG long term debt and short term debt slightly went up between 2000 and 2019.
External debt stocks in developing countries by region is the concern is East and South-East Asia and Oceania and Latin America and the Caribbean have exchange the top and second position of highest amount in both 2018 and 2000. Long-term external PPG debt by creditor is Private creditorsbonds helds the biggest amount for average three years, especially 1.35505E+12 % in 2018. Debt service on long-term external PPG debt is the status bebt of developing countries in detail.
In which the overall is SIDS is helds the biggest amount of debt between 2000 and 2019. Debt service on long-term external PPG debt, Low-income group and Sub-Saharan Africa group is Sub-Saharan Africa bears the heavier debt than Low-income group which around 12% in 2000. Redemption schedules for public external debt is The highlight is both High-income countries and Low-and middle-income countries both increased the amount of redemption which is from around 2 to 2.32 tril USD and 0.67 to 1.07 tril USD in 2000 and 2021, respectively. This shows us that at least they have solution how to get resolved their external debt.